Sam's Club Roadshow — H2 2026 Program P&L (v5.23 v.1)

Executive Summary

Sam's Club Roadshow H2 2026 — 190 shows across 3 waves. Total NEW $ commit $416,950 landed (4000WS Oct-Dec NEW + Polo NEW only — Bomber fully ATS from Costco US OH). Realized revenue $1.34M against 50.3K units sold. Program write-off shrinks to $22K under the new 10%-on-paid-returns methodology (90% recoverable to DC).

Realized Revenue

$1.34M

50,290 units sold · 26.4% blended ST

Realized Gross Profit

$1.08M

80.7% · before write-off

Fully-Loaded GP

$1.06M

79.0% · after $22K write-off

EBITDA (Current Plan)

($183K)

-13.7% · 190 shows · $6,375/show ops

What's in v5.23 vs prior

5.22 → 5.23 — refined realized revenue and FL-GP downward by ~$52K. Source's realized revenue trimmed from $1.39M → $1.34M (better-calibrated blended pricing across 2-packs vs single units). Realized COGS unchanged at $259K. Write-off methodology identical: 10% of landed cost on PAID returns only (4000WS Oct-Dec NEW + Polo NEW), with 90% reusable inventory recovered to DC as balance-sheet credit ($200K). Bomber ATS unsold returns to Costco US OH — no P&L impact.

Headline tension

The good — Product Profit is solidly positive at 79%. Realized GP $1.08M and FL-GP $1.06M both reflect strong unit economics on what gets sold. The new write-off methodology removed $200K of stranding risk that was on the books in 5.21.
The hard part — EBITDA still negative at -$183K (CP). Operating costs ($1.21M = 190 shows × $6,375/show) consume the entire $1.06M FL-GP. The structural issue is scale: 190 shows × ~$7K avg rev/show ≈ $1.34M doesn't cover Sam's right-sized ops cost.
Path to break-even in Expected v2: -$59K. Lighter ops ($5,725/show) gets program close — within $59K of break-even. Beyond v2, further margin would require either lifting ST% (especially Polo at 35%), increasing avg rev/show, or restructuring ops further.

Cross-channel context (H2 2026)

Channel	Shows / Events	FL-GP $	EBITDA (CP)	EBITDA %
Costco US	562 events	$5.49M	$4.01M	38.1%
Costco Canada	128 shows	$2.87M	$1.62M	33.8%
Sam's Club	190 shows	$1.06M	($183K)	-13.7%

Why Sam's is structurally tighter than Costco. Avg rev/show: Sam's $7,042 vs Costco US warehouse events ~$18-20K vs Costco CA roadshow ~$33K. Sam's pallet count is comparable to CC (3 pallets/show) but per-show throughput is markedly lower. Even at Sam's right-sized $6,375/show ops, the per-show fixed-cost burden is ~90% of per-show revenue — leaving very little EBITDA room.

Headline P&L — Three Scenarios

Three scenarios shown side-by-side. All three share the same realized revenue and product economics (locked by 5.23 source); they differ only on operational cost intensity per show. 1.42 landed mult applied across all scenarios — US channels do NOT receive Cambodia 0% duty (US GSP excludes apparel).

Line item	YTD Actuals	Current Plan	Expected v2
REVENUE
Realized Revenue (WSP) 50,290 sold units × blended WSP · source-published	$1,337,900	$1,337,900	$1,337,900
Total expected revenue	$1,337,900	$1,337,900	$1,337,900
PRODUCT COSTS
Realized COGS Landed cost of all sold units · 1.42 mult	($258,709)	($258,709)	($258,709)
Inventory write-off (10% unrecoverable) 10% of paid returns (4000WS NEW $6,908 + Polo NEW $15,285) · 90% reusable → DC balance sheet	($22,193)	($22,193)	($22,193)
Memo: Reusable inventory recovered to DC (90% × paid returns) Balance-sheet movement only — NOT P&L	$199,736	$199,736	$199,736
Product Profit (PP)	$1,056,999 (79.0%)	$1,056,999 (79.0%)	$1,056,999 (79.0%)
CHANNEL + LOGISTICS
Channel fees (MDF + Markdown + Shrink)	($28,509)	($28,509)	($28,509)
Logistics (190 shows × per-show) Outbound + Inbound + Kitting + RL	($617,500)	($475,000)	($418,000)
Gross Profit (GP)	$410,990 (30.7%)	$553,490 (41.4%)	$610,490 (45.6%)
FIXED OVERHEAD
Per-show overhead (190 shows × right-sized) Staffing + Fixtures + WC + Travel + Compliance + Insurance	($859,750)	($736,250)	($669,750)
EBITDA	($448,760) (-33.5%)	($182,760) (-13.7%)	($59,260) (-4.4%)

How to read this. All three scenarios use the same source-published 5.23 numbers above the Product Profit line ($1.34M rev → $1.06M PP). Scenarios diverge below the line on operational intensity per show. YTD Actuals reflects current run-rate cost discipline ($7,775/show ops). Current Plan applies right-sized ops for Sam's smaller per-show throughput ($6,375/show — 43% lower than Costco CA's $11,148). Expected v2 layers further savings ($5,725/show).

PO Investment & Inventory Mix

Total program units: 109,920 across 4 styles. NEW $ commit limited to 4000WS Oct-Dec ($182K landed) and Polo full PO ($235K landed) — total NEW $416,950. Aug 4000WS, LS Crew Nov-Dec, and all Bomber are sourced from existing DC OH or Costco US ATS (zero new cash).

Investment by PO type

PO Type	Units	FOB ($)	Landed COG ($)	Retail / WSP ($)	Cash impact
4000WS Aug 2-Packs (HSEAFARER + NAVY/HINDIGO) — DC OH	19,200	$0	$0	$518,208	OH — zero $
4000WS Oct-Dec NEW 2-Packs (Charcoal + Black/MG)	26,880	$128,027	$181,798	$725,491	NEW $
4200WS LS Crew 2-Packs Nov-Dec (BLACK/BLACK + BLACK/WHITE)	19,200	$0	$0	$518,016	OH — zero $
4022WS Polo NEW PO (Aug + Oct-Nov, 3 colorways)	28,800	$165,600	$235,152	$518,400	NEW $
4614WC Bomber Jacket — ALL ATS (Costco US OH)	15,840	$0	$0	$712,642	ATS — zero $
PROGRAM TOTAL	109,920	$293,627	$416,950	$2,992,757	$417K NEW cash

Wave-by-wave NEW PO timing

Wave	Shows	4000WS NEW	Polo NEW	Total NEW PO Units	$ COG (landed)	PO Place-by
Aug-Sept (in-store Aug 5)	50	0	16,000	16,000	$130,640	May 22
Oct-Nov (in-store Sept 29)	40	7,680	12,800	20,480	$156,454	Jul 16 / Aug
Nov-Dec (in-store Nov 18)	100	19,200	0	19,200	$129,856	Sept 4
Program Total	190	26,880	28,800	55,680	$416,950	—

Lead-time pressure on Aug. Polo Aug PO must place by May 22 to meet Aug 5 in-store date. Aug RTV (9,360 Polo units returned post-show) flows to post-H2 inventory, not recycled in-H2 — Aug RTV ready Oct 3, which is after Oct-Nov in-store (Sept 29).

Realized Revenue Buildup

Realized revenue = sold units (style × blended ST) × WSP. Source-published total: $1,337,900 across 50,290 sold units. Blended ST across all styles: 26.4%.

Total sold

50,290

units

Blended ST

26.4%

vs program deployed 109,920

Realized Revenue

$1.34M

source-published

Avg rev / show

$7,042

190 shows

By style (sold units × WSP)

Style	Deployed	ST %	Sold	WSP	Realized Rev
4000WS SS Crew 2pk (Aug OH + Oct-Dec NEW)	46,080	62.0%	28,570	$26.99 / 2pk	$385,576
4200WS LS Crew 2pk (Nov-Dec OH)	19,200	40.0%	7,680	$26.98 / 2pk	$207,206
4022WS Polo (Aug + Oct-Nov NEW)	28,800	35.0%	10,080	$18.00	$181,440
4614WC Bomber (ATS, all 190 shows)	15,840	25.0%	3,960	$45.00	$178,200
Per-product buildup $952K vs source-published $1,338K — gap reflects bundle vs single-unit pricing in source workbook. P&L uses source-published $1,337,900 throughout.
Total Realized Revenue (source)	109,920	26.4%	50,290	—	$1,337,900

By wave

Wave	Shows	Units deployed	Avg units/show	Avg rev/show
Aug-Sept (4000WS Aug OH + Polo + Bomber Aug)	50	36,800	736	$7,042
Oct-Nov (4000WS NEW + Polo + Bomber NEW)	40	24,320	608	$7,042
Nov-Dec (4000WS NEW + LS OH + Bomber NEW)	100	48,800	488	$7,042
Total	190	109,920	578	$7,042

Product Profit (PP) Buildup

PP = Realized Revenue − Realized COGS − Write-off. The 5.22/5.23 methodology applies a 10% unrecoverable rate to PAID returns only (4000WS Oct-Dec NEW PO + Polo NEW PO). The other 90% of paid returns flow back to the DC as reusable inventory ($200K balance-sheet credit). Bomber ATS unsold returns to Costco US OH; 4200WS LS OH unsold stays in DC — both balance-sheet only, no P&L impact.

Returns & write-off table

Style	Deployed	Sold	Returns	Landed/unit	Write-off (10%)	Treatment
4000WS Oct-Dec NEW (paid)	26,880	16,666	10,214	$6.76	$6,908	10% W/O · 90% to DC
4000WS Aug OH (no $)	19,200	11,904	7,296	$0.00	$0	OH — balance-sheet
4200WS LS OH (no $)	19,200	7,680	11,520	$0.00	$0	OH — balance-sheet
4022WS Polo NEW (paid)	28,800	10,080	18,720	$8.17	$15,285	10% W/O · 90% to DC
4614WC Bomber ATS (no $)	15,840	3,960	11,880	$0.00	$0	ATS → Costco US OH
Total	109,920	50,290	59,630	—	$22,193	—

PP build

Line	Amount	% Rev	Source
Realized Revenue	$1,337,900	100.0%	Source
Less: Realized COGS (all sold × landed)	($258,709)	(19.3%)	Source
Realized Gross Profit	$1,079,192	80.7%	Pre-write-off
Less: Inventory write-off (10% unrecoverable)	($22,193)	(1.7%)	Source
Memo: Reusable inventory to DC (90% × paid returns)	$199,736	—	Balance-sheet
PRODUCT PROFIT (PP) / Fully-Loaded GP	$1,056,999	79.0%	= Layer 1

What the new write-off methodology bought us. Under 5.21's full-stranding methodology, write-off was $222K (16% of revenue). The 5.22/5.23 shift to 10%-unrecoverable-on-paid-returns reduces write-off to $22K (1.7%) and adds $200K of reusable inventory back to the DC balance sheet. Net P&L improvement: +$200K.

Gross Profit → EBITDA

Below the Product Profit line, the program absorbs channel fees, logistics costs, and fixed per-show overhead. Toggle scenarios to compare run-rate Actuals, the right-sized Current Plan, and the optimistic Expected v2.

Product Profit

$1,056,999

79.0% · locked across scenarios

Channel + Logistics

($503,509)

190 shows × per-show

Gross Profit (GP)

$553,490

41.4% of revenue

EBITDA

($182,760)

-13.7% · ops $6,375/show

Scenario comparison

YTD Actuals

($448,760)

-33.5% · ops $7,775/show

Current Plan

($182,760)

-13.7% · ops $6,375/show

Expected v2

($59,260)

-4.4% · ops $5,725/show

Full P&L — Current Plan view

Line item	Amount	% Rev	Source

Path to break-even. Expected v2 ($5,725/show) lands within $59K of break-even on EBITDA. To close that gap, three levers (each individually sufficient): (1) lift Polo ST from 35% → 43% (+$59K PP), (2) further trim ops to $5,415/show (-$310/show), or (3) negotiate ~5% additional channel fee reduction.

Wave-by-Wave Cash + Inventory Flow

Cash outflow timing follows PO place-by dates (factory production typically requires 10-12 weeks). All NEW $ commitment ($417K landed) is upfront — no payment terms — and lands across May → Sept 2026.

Month	PO Type / Style	Units	$ Cash Out (landed)	Cumulative	Notes
May 2026	Polo Aug-Sept NEW (16,000u)	16,000	$130,640	$130,640	Aug 5 in-store · Polo Aug must place by May 22
Aug 2026	4000WS + Polo Oct-Nov NEW (20,480u)	20,480	$156,454	$287,094	Sept 29 in-store · 4000WS Oct-Nov + Polo Oct-Nov
Sept 2026	4000WS Nov-Dec NEW (19,200u)	19,200	$129,856	$416,950	Nov 18 in-store · place-by Sept 4
Total NEW $ Commit		55,680	$416,950		4000WS Oct-Dec + Polo only

Inventory deployment by wave

Wave	4000WS	4200WS LS	Polo	Bomber	Total units
Aug-Sept (50 clubs)	19,200 (OH)	—	16,000 (NEW)	2,400 (ATS)	36,800 (4 trays/show)
Oct-Nov (40 clubs)	7,680 (NEW)	—	12,800 (NEW)	3,840 (ATS)	24,320 (4 trays/show)
Nov-Dec (100 clubs)	19,200 (NEW)	19,200 (OH)	—	9,600 (ATS)	48,000 (3 trays/show)
Program Total	46,080	19,200	28,800	15,840	109,920

Assumptions

All assumptions sourced from Sam's Club H2 2026 Investment Ask 5.23. Sell-through is the single largest sensitivity — 4000WS validated against 303 historical shows, but Polo and Bomber are plugs (no Sam's history for those styles).

Sell-through (blended across waves)

Style	ST %	Return %	Validation
4000WS SS Crew 2pk	62.0%	38.0%	Validated 61.6% median across 303 historical Sam's shows
4200WS LS Crew 2pk	40.0%	60.0%	Plug Lifted from 23% on new $26.98 WSP / $29.98 MSRP
4022WS Polo	35.0%	65.0%	Plug · risk No Sam's history — biggest single sensitivity ($153K return-units bucket pre-recovery)
4614WC Bomber	25.0%	75.0%	Plug · ATS No Sam's history — but ATS, no $ at risk

Cost stack

Style	FOB ($)	Landed ($, 1.42)	WSP ($)	MSRP ($)	GM%
4000WS SS Crew 2pk	$4.76	$6.76	$26.99 / 2pk	$29.98	75%
4200WS LS Crew 2pk	$3.20	$4.54	$26.98 / 2pk	$29.98	83%
4022WS Polo	$5.75	$8.17	$18.00	$24.98	55%
4614WC Bomber (ATS — no $)	$0.00	$0.00	$45.00	$59.98	100%

Scenario cost stacks (per-show)

Cost bucket	YTD Actuals	Current Plan	Expected v2
LOGISTICS (per-show)
Outbound (DC → club)	$2,000	$1,600	$1,400
Inbound	$350	$250	$250
Kitting	$300	$200	$200
RL (reverse logistics)	$600	$450	$350
Logistics subtotal	$3,250	$2,500	$2,200
OVERHEAD (per-show)
Staffing	$3,100	$2,500	$2,250
Fixtures	$700	$700	$600
WC + Travel + Compliance + Insurance	$725	$675	$675
Overhead subtotal	$4,525	$3,875	$3,525
Total ops / show	$7,775	$6,375	$5,725

Why Sam's CP is $6,375/show (vs Adam's CC roadshow $11,148). CC roadshow staffing is materially heavier (full week-long, fitting-room, branded retail experience). Sam's pallets are simpler (boxed merch on pallets, no fitting rooms, lighter staffing). The 43% lower ops cost reflects that operational reality — but Sam's per-show revenue is also lower (~$7K vs CC's ~$33K), so the EBITDA gap structurally remains.

Version Deltas

Sam's Club H2 2026 has gone through several iterations as the team refined unit allocation, ATS sourcing, and write-off methodology. Below the trajectory from 5.21 to 5.23 v.1.

Line item	5.21	5.21 v.1	5.22	5.23	5.23 v.1
Units deployed	108,040	109,520	109,920	109,920	109,920
NEW $ commit (landed)	$651K	$417K	$417K	$417K	$417K
Realized Revenue	$1,276K	$1,390K	$1,390K	$1,338K	$1,338K
Realized COGS	$367K	$394K	$259K	$259K	$259K
Write-off	$393K	$222K	$22K	$22K	$22K
Reusable to DC (memo)	—	—	$200K	$200K	$200K
Product Profit / FL-GP	$516K	$774K	$1,109K	$1,057K	$1,057K
EBITDA (Current Plan)	($725K)	($470K)	($135K)	($183K)	($183K)

What changed in 5.23 v.1

Operational refinements only — no financial impact. 5.23 v.1 refines SKU-level pricing rounding (FOB $4.76 → $4.70 in PO Detail, COG $6.674 vs $6.67) and restructures the Polo Oct-Nov pallet build spec. All program totals identical to 5.23: NEW $ commit $417K, Realized Rev $1.338M, FL-GP $1.057M.
Colorway lineup confirmed: 4000WS Oct-Dec NEW is 2 colorways (Charcoal HGrey/Heather + Black/Heather), not the earlier 4-colorway spec.
5.22 → 5.23 (prior step): Realized Revenue trimmed $52K ($1,390K → $1,338K). Source recalibrated blended pricing across 2-pack vs single-unit treatment. Sold units unchanged at 50,290. FL-GP down $52K ($1,109K → $1,057K).
Methodology stable across 5.22 → 5.23 → v.1. 10% write-off on paid returns only, 90% reusable inventory to DC. Bomber ATS treatment unchanged.

5.21 → 5.21 v.1 → 5.22 — the bigger moves

5.21 → v.1 (Bomber → ATS): Removed $234K Bomber NEW PO; deployed from Costco US ATS inventory instead. Saved $171K of NEW PO write-off risk. EBITDA improved from -$725K → -$470K.
v.1 → 5.22 (10% write-off methodology): Adopted "90% reusable / 10% unrecoverable" treatment on paid returns. Write-off dropped from $222K → $22K, plus $200K reusable inventory credit. EBITDA improved from -$470K → -$135K.